As part of the Institute's final week, Devin Hagerty met with the Fellows to discuss, "Contemporary Crises Around the Indian Ocean." Hagerty presently sees four main issues that threaten stability in the Indian Ocean region.

• America's war on terrorism.
• Stability of Pakistan.
• Indo-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir
• Indo-Pakistani nuclear competition.

In discussing these four central points, Hagerty evoked a discussion as complex and spirited as the region itself.

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has steadily increased its influence in south and central Asia. As a result, the Afghan Taliban government has been forced out and replaced by a coalition government led by Hamid Karzai. Hagerty contends that the new Afghan regime will probably not wield formidable power over the people, but may find success through decentralization and delegation of power to the various factions that make up the new alliance government.

Hagerty also observes that Pakistan constantly appears on the verge of collapse, yet remains intact despite challenges that might destroy other nations. With a population estimated at 145 million, the nation confounds experts who have long been forecasting its doom. Normally, states, which are socially repressive and heavily saddled with international debt, find sovereignty a difficult proposition. But, in the case of Pakistan, its fragile nature has surprised many experts by enduring as it has for more than fifty years.

No examination of international relations in south Asia is complete without discussing the Kashmir question. Since partition in 1947, India and Pakistan have competed for control of the contested states of Kashmir and Jammu. Presently, both nations control significant portions of this area with constant tensions between the thousands of soldiers defending against cross border aggression. Additionally, Pakistan has ceded part of Kashmir that India claims to China. This further complicates the issue because of the traditional tensions between India and China. Hagerty estimates that more than 60,000 have been killed over the Kashmir question since 1989.

Perhaps most important to westerners is the nuclear issue between these two powers who have stood on the brink of war for many decades. Hagerty contends that while both nations have nuclear capabilities and have blustered about their willingness to use them, India and Pakistan have shown considerable restraint through the years. Interestingly, Hagerty refers the nuclear issue between India and Pakistan as a "competition" rather than the more popular "arms race." He explains that India began developing nuclear technology under the guise of defending itself from neighboring China. As a result of India's activities, Pakistan began its own nuclear program. Since 1987, both nations have had nuclear capabilities, but it has not escalated to a full race for superiority.

BDM

Reading List:

Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg, eds., Strategic Asia: Power and Purpose, 2001-02 (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2001).

Sumit Ganguly, Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions since 1947 (New York: Columbia, 2002).

Sumit Ganguly, The Crisis in Kashmir: Portents of War, Hopes of Peace (Cambridge: Cambridge, 1997).

Devin T. Hagerty, The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons from South Asia (Cambridge: MIT, 1998).

_____ , "Australia's Relations with South Asia," in James Cotton and John Ravenhill, eds., Australia in World Affairs, 1996-2000 (Melbourne: Oxford, 2002).

_____ , "The South Asian Nuclear Tests: Implications for Arms Control," in Carl Ungerer and Marianne Hanson, eds., The Politics of Nuclear Non-Proliferation (Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 2001).

_____ , "South Asia's Big Bangs: Causes, Consequences, and Prospects," Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 53, No. 1, April 1999.

Robert J. McMahon, The Cold War on the Periphery: The United States, India, and Pakistan (New York: Columbia, 1994).

George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley: California, 1999).

Robert G. Wirsing, India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir Dispute (New York: St. Martin's, 1994).

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Devin Hagerty

Professor of Political Science

University of Maryland

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